The New Financial Global Capital Markets Growth Index analyses — we think for the first time — the size, depth and growth potential of capital markets in 60 economies around the world across 25 different sectors of capital markets activity.
It highlights the wide range in the level of development of capital markets between different regions and different countries. And it shows that while developed economies have the largest capital markets in terms of sheer size, in many sectors emerging economies have the highest growth potential in the medium- to long-term. Our analysis suggests that Europe will account for only around one quarter of the growth opportunity in global capital markets over the next decade. But it also highlights a huge opportunity for the industry: while there is clear potential to develop bigger and deeper capital markets in Europe, this is dwarfed by the potential growth in markets such as China, India, Brazil and other emerging markets.
Large and deep capital markets are not an end in themselves. The value of deeper capital markets is that they support sustainable economic growth in several ways.
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Healthy capital markets diversify the range of financing for companies and reduce their reliance on bank lending. They boost the shock absorption capacity of an economy and strengthen financial stability.
They improve productivity through more efficient allocation of capital. And they provide more people with more opportunities to invest or save towards their retirement. We hope this report helps policymakers and market participants better identify development gaps and growth opportunities and how to address them, and better understand how deeper capital markets can benefit their economies.
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Our ranking is dominated by a premier league of six economies with highly-developed capital markets relative to GDP. The top two positions are smaller economies which act as hubs for regional activity: Hong Kong is top with a score of compared with a global benchmark of , and Singapore comes second with Even on relatively conservative assumptions, capital markets in the Asia Pacific region are set to dominate global growth over the coming decade.
Brexit has highlighted the urgency of the CMU project: without the UK, capital markets in the rest of the EU27 are around one third smaller and significantly less developed than in the EU Economies in Asia and Europe are nearly three times more dependent on bank lending. While there are clear structural differences in banking systems around the world, this reliance exposes these economies to the cyclical nature of bank lending, which can quickly dry up after an economic shock.
While households in Europe and Asia save more than in the US, there is huge potential to shift more of these savings into long-term pools of capital by developing pensions systems and encouraging more retail investment. In absolute terms, markets in the Asia Pacific will account for as much as two thirds of the growth over the coming decade in sectors such as stockmarkets, IPOs and corporate bonds. In most sectors, the potential growth in Asia is two to four times larger than in EMEA in terms of value, and Asia will increase its share of global capital markets activity from around one third today to just under a half over the next 20 years.
Efficient capital markets rely on a thriving business environment, stable government, and high levels of trust in the rule of law. Economies that want to develop deeper capital markets to support their economies will need to focus on wider issues such as structural economic reform rather than narrow regulation of banking and financial markets.
Economies that are open and competitive are more likely to enjoy flourishing capital markets. While many of the barriers to deeper capital markets are national, the increasingly interconnected global economy means that some of these challenges can only be addressed at a cross-border, regional or global level. The report analyses the size, depth and growth potential of capital markets in 60 economies around the world including all members of the G20, OECD and EU Too bad so few politicians have the courage to say such things plainly.
To help make clear that we all have a stake in the financial system and in the ongoing debates about policy reform, a multinational network of financial players have organized themselves as The Committee on Transforming Finance.
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The group recently issued a formal Statement declaring that the financial system is a global commons that should be governed accordingly. The Statement is a great idea for re-framing debate and making clear that all sorts of excluded stakeholders should have a seat at the table in redesigning the global financial system.
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The system should be designed and managed to serve all stakeholders, including the diverse elements of civil society and ecosystems, whose intrinsic value is often ignored by global capital markets. The drafting committee for the Statement includes investors, asset managers, business executives, philanthropists, academics and financial authors.
If we are to avoid future systemic failures in the global financial system, we must re-think the underlying design flaws that precipitated the financial crises. We must move beyond Bretton Woods, where this financial commons was first defined within a set of global rules and institutions in , as well as beyond recent attempts at reforms that have not addressed fundamental questions, including:.
Because we all benefit from healthy eco-systems, financially sound institutions and thriving human communities, rethinking the design assumptions of the regulatory and capital markets is an urgent global priority.
Our call comes in the face of insufficient response by national governments to the financial crisis of , the demonstrated failure of traditional economics theory that markets are efficient in allocating capital, growing global interdependence, intensifying environmental crises, global social inequity and the technological interconnectedness of global financial markets.
These hour markets are dependent on satellites, internet and other technologies which were largely financed by taxpayers as public infrastructure investments.
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